Signs of recovery at Shanghai, but risk of surge remains

As Covid cases continue to fall in Shanghai there are signs of the manufacturing industry returning to normal production.

More than 2000 manufacturers are now on a whitelist of those permitted to come back online, though they still have to operate under restrictive "closed-loop" conditions.

It is estimated that the lockdown in Shanghai has cost global trade $28bn so far. Throughput at the port of Shanghai is still down 22% compared with pre-lockdown levels, though volumes have at least stabilised in a way which suggests recovery. Average dwell times for exports are currently 6.4 days, 31% higher than before the lockdown but 10% lower than the peak on 22nd April.

Experts continue to warn that once manufacturing ramps back up there will be a significant spike in exports as companies try to fulfil backlogs of orders, with one industry insider saying: “We expect the last five weeks of COVID-19-related shutdowns at the largest shipping port in the world is about to begin to impact freight with a potential big splash whenever that faucet gets turned back on”.

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